WEPROG's application, the MSEPS system, requires continuous research and development in both meteorological problems as well as computer technology, as the 3D-numerical modelling of the weather is strongly dependent on the computing technology available to solve the numerical functions inside the weather models. The efficiency of the programming source code is also dependent on the processor technology and hence the solvable problem size. The larger the model areas become, the more computing capacity is required. To keep highest performance in a cost effective framework is an ongoing challenge that requires continuous testing and recoding of software to be able to make use of technology advances.
WEPROG is taking on this responsibility together with their partners and collaborators to always be at the forefront of available technology and to be able to deliver continuous improvements over time. The fact that real-time operations are practised with customers on almost all continents is challenging, but also gives a unique opportunity to identify issues and solve problems at places far away from certain target areas, which however may be affected by such problems. One example are the Rocky Mountains in Alberta that have influence on the weather development in Northern Europe. By solving wind flow issues over the Albertan part of the Rockies, not only the Canadian, but also the Danish and German customers will see improvements in forecast quality.
WEPROG also actively participates and coordinates research projects. In fact, the first project and starting point of WEPROG was the MELTRA project (2003-2006), which was funded by the Transmission System Operator for the western part of Denmark ELTRA (now Energinet.dk).
Current and recent projects, where WEPROG is involved
IEA Wind Task 51: Forecasting for the weather driven Energy System (2022-2025)
The new Task 51 "Forecasting for the weather driven Energy System" will focus on facilitating communication and collaborations among international research groups engaged in the improvement of the accuracy and applicability of forecast models and their utility for the stakeholders in the wind industry, in the power sector and in the energy system. This Task has the following specific objectives:
- To establish an active, open forum for sharing knowledge among the participants, related IEA Wind Tasks and other related TCPs through workshops, dissemination and communication measures
- To establish and communicate standards and frameworks for the operation and evaluation of forecast model performance
- To identify paths to increased application and utility of forecast information to the task stakeholders
- To advance the knowledge in the entire modelling chain including the uncertainty and related applications and decision making
- To identify most promising areas for new research to improve the quality and utility of forecasts
- To provide guidelines for the implementation of optimal forecasting solutions
WEPROG will be responsible for 2 workstreams and coordinating Workpackae 3:
Uncertainty / probabilistic forecasting & decision making under uncertainty
Uncertainty is inherent in the forecasting of weather driven power generation. In WP3, the integration of forecast uncertainty into power grid management, wind power bidding strategies, and storage operation, will be analysed considering the role of humans (and their perception of uncertainty and risk), costs and benefits of end-users.
Extreme power system events
Weather extremes are a threat to the power system, not only due to destruction of hardware, but also due to inadequate unit commitment, grid planning and available generation units. The challenges are broad. Knowledge and exchange of information on how to forecast extremes and mitigate effects from such extremes are topics in the next phase.
Task Webpage: https://iea-wind.org/task-36/ and specific Workpackage 3
Task Description and Kick-off Meeting Information can be found here
WIKKI - Wind energy short-term forecast based on coupled meso- and microscale models controlled by artificial intelligence (2022-2024)
The aim of the project is to create a process chain from ensemble weather forecasting in connection with CFD modeling and ML-based power forecasting as well as learning and feedback processes to combine micro-, meso- and macroscales into an integrated improved short-term forecast for wind energy applications.
Coordination: Esslingen University of Applied Sciences, Building and Energy Technology (HE-NG)
Partners: Esslingen University, IT and information technology (HE-IN), research association WindForS, WEPROG
Funded by the German Federal Foundation for the Environment (DBU) under Project ID: 37549/01 24/0.
More information coming soon ... check our Information page or technical reports page for publications
IEA Wind Task 36: Wind Power Forecasting
2016-2019 and 2019-2021
The IEA Task 36 Wind Power Forecasting under the IEA Implementing Agreement for Co-operation in the Research, Development, and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems (IEA Wind) focuses on improving the value of wind energy forecasts to the wind industry. There are three distinct areas of challenge in forecasting wind power. The first is in the continuing effort to improve the representation of physical processes in forecast models through both improved initialization and improved parameterizations. The second area is the representation of uncertainty, the lack of uniform benchmark criteria and the lack of benchmarks or comparison datasets. A third area is representation, communication, and use of these uncertainties to industry in forms that readily support decision-making in plant operations and electricity markets. This Task will facilitate coordination of efforts in all three of these areas and will work to define best practices for model evaluation and uncertainty communication.
Task Webpage: https://www.ieawindforecasting.dk or https://iea-wind.org/task-36/
Task Description can be found here
Member of the Mangement group and Co-leader Workpackage 3
Task leader of WP3.1: State of the Art in using Uncertainty Forecasting in the power industry.
IEA Wind Recommended Practice:
Task Co-lead Wp2.1: Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection
"Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments" initiative:
The initiative is a cooperation of the IEA Task 36 WP3 and project WEXICOM at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development.
Publications can be found here: WEPROG specific Publications or IEA overall Task 36 Publications
SMART GRID SOLAR:
Photovoltaics is like wind energy an intermittent source of energy, dependent on the sun to shine. Therefore, it cannot or only to a limited amount be used to cover base load requirements in the energy mix. In a future scenario of Bavaria, where PV covers 25% or more of the electricity demand, it is important that ways and methods are found to manage electricity demand and develop storage possibilities. In first instance this is important for grid stability, in the next step storage will become an important means to make PV generated electricity capable of delivering base load.
The objective of the project is to develop methods and technologies to enhance the amount of PV and other renewable energies and to enable these energy sources to deliver enery in a sustainable way into the grid.
Project Coordinator: Bavarian Center for Applied Energy Research (ZAE)
Projekt Hompage: http://www.smart-grid-solar.de
Projekt description: Dokument
Participation of WEPROG in the work package: Informations- und Kommunikationstechnik (IKT): Delivery of real-time forecasts (2015-2017)
RAVE - Grid Integration of offshore wind farms, Germany (2008-2011)
The Grid integration of offshore wind parks project is one out of 15 projects of the RAVE - Research at Alpha Ventus - research activities supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU) in order to accelerate the offshore wind energy development at the offshore test site "alpha ventus" with the overall objective to reduce the costs of offshore wind energy deployment in deep water. The offshore wind farm alpha ventus is located 45 km north of the island Borkum in the Northsea next to the research platform "FINO 1". It will comprise twelve 5MW offshore wind turbines.
WEPROG's final Project report can be downloaded here (only German version available).
AESO Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project , Alberta Canada (2007-2008)
The purpose of the pilot project was to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience
DEWEPS - Development and research of a new wind profile theory with an ensemble prediction system (2009-2011). A research project initiated by the Danish PSO-F&U FORSKEL 2009-2012 fund coordinated by WEPROG ApS.
Project reports can be downloaded here.
HREnsembleHR - High resolution Ensemble at Horns Rev, Denmark (2006-2009)
A research project with financial support from the Danish PSO-F&U FORSKEL 2006-2010 grants, coordinated by WEPROG ApS, Denmark. In this project, the consortium combined developments in oceanic, weather and wind energy forecasting to realistically describe offshore wind variability, to take advantage of ensemble forecasting, and to study the interaction of the sea surface and the atmosphere.
Project reports can be downloaded here. Project-relevant publications can be found on the project homepage.
Current and recent projects coordinated by WEPROG
DEWEPS project (2009-2012)
DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of a new wind profile theory with an Ensemble Prediction System (2009-2011). A research project funded by the Danish PSO-F&U FORSKEL funds case no. 10260 (2009-2012) coordinated by WEPROG ApS.
Project reports can be downloaded here.
HREnsembleHR project (2006-2009)HREnsembleHR - High resolution Ensemble at Horns Rev, Denmark case no. 6387 (2006-2009)
A research project funded by the Danish PSO-F&U FORSKEL fund case no. 6387 (2006-2010) coordinated by WEPROG ApS, Denmark. In this project, the consortium combines developments in ocean, weather and wind power prediction in order to produce a realistic variability of the wind offshore, to make use of the advantages from an ensemble of forecasts, and to study the interactions between the sea surface and the atmosphere. p>
Project reports can be downloaded here.