WEPROG

Weather is uncertain. Our forecasts make that uncertainty work for you.

Founded and privately owned by Jess U. Jørgensen and Dr. Corinna Möhrlen
Powered by our Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System (MSEPS)
Built around one crucial parameter: the physical uncertainty of the weather

In WEPROG we value security and the continued development of our system with the help of newest technology advances. Maximum redundancy and security is key for us in our operations, where we continuously produce forecasts on 365 days a year. Real-time weather products are generated four times per day at 00,06,12,18 UTC and up to 10 days ahead anywhere.

WEPROG operates on a 24/7 basis, where forecasting of weather related derivates such as wind power and solar power take place in the short-term with schedules down to 1min. WEPROG's inverted Ensemble Kalman Filter technique provides the basis of such forecasting products that require data assimilation with customer specific measurements.

A brief history in time Starting in 2003 to now...

The first demonstration system covering Europe and the Atlantic started in operation in summer 2003 after an extensive programming period. One year later WEPROG started to produce forecasts focused over Denmark 4 times per day in three different horizontal resolutions (45km, 15km and 5km), as 75 forecasts of the expected wind power load for the next 72 hours.

2005: Started global weather forecasts at 60 km resolution for all continents; WEPROG ApS established in Denmark to coordinate real-time services and expand internationally.

2006: Introduced hemispheric boundary models (N/S); began 6-day forecasts every 6 hours (July). Added third operational system in a Berlin hosting centre for redundancy.

2007: Short-term forecasting and ramp-rate predictions became operational; hardware upgrade placed in a Frankfurt hosting centre, enabling higher bandwidth, leased lines and VPN connections, plus new web-based monitoring and graphical interface.

2008–2009: Recoded the wind power prediction tool; introduced Ensemble Kalman-Filter approach for upscaling, data assimilation and ultra-short-term forecasting. Developed own scalable database software/hardware (250 mio forecast files online by spring 2009), connected to expanded web-based graphical software for case studies. Early 2009: semi-operational hemispheric ensemble system with all 75 members.

2010: Hemispheric ensemble system operational; standard forecast horizon extended to 6 days (144h), up to 10 days if required. Further research and optimisations in data handling, IT infrastructure and communication.

2011: Introduced WebServices for faster, more precise data exchange. Milestones: inverted Ensemble Kalman Filter (iEnKF) using any measurement type, and "Early-Bird" forecast meeting EPEX gate closure (11 minutes from 06UTC analysis to delivery of 75 forecasts incl. postprocessing).

2012: Continued IT service and web application developments; new products using ensemble uncertainty for energy trading and wind/solar integration. Key achievements: publication of strategic trading practices and roll-out of reserve forecasts using ensemble data.

2013: Reserve forecasts brought into operation and delivered in real-time to a transmission system operator; began IT efficiency work with a look-ahead to cloud computing (2014).

2015: Launched public Weather WebApp "find the weather you like" at weather.weprog.com — browser-based, work-in-progress to bring ensemble forecasting benefits to the public.

2016–2018: Research and industry guidelines via IEA Wind Task 36; director Corinna Möhrlen led development of recommended practices for selecting forecasting solutions and chaired the workpackage on uncertainty forecasting. All publications open access.

2019: New phase of IEA Wind Task 36 on recommended practices for uncertainty/probabilistic forecasting and meteorological measurements in system operations; first drafts presented at workshops in Copenhagen (ICEM, June) and Dublin (Wind Integration Workshop, October).

2019–2021: Focus on climate change actions, research and reducing environmental footprint; weathered crises (including Corona) with renewed awareness and resilience. New edition of Recommended Practices to be published (2022, Elsevier, open access). Collaboration with WEXICOM (Max-Planck Institute) on human decision-making under uncertainty yielded two forecasting games (4 conferences, 2 journal publications) and a poster award at Wind Europe Electric City 2021. Complete overhaul of the probabilistic ramping reserve tool.

2022–2024: Dissemination and further research: DBU-funded German research project (2022), Eurostar 3 project with Swedish and Danish partners (2023), and another German project funded by the Ministry of Economy and Climate (2024) — the latter two on data assimilation of satellite/remote sensing data (AI). Several papers published; some assimilation results already in minute-scale forecast operations.

2025–2026: Implemented data assimilation developments into operation with unprecedented improvements. Engagement with IEA Wind Task 51 and IEC SC8A WG2 led to two publications on extreme events and evaluation. First Renewables Forecasting Standard (IEC TS63531) expected 2027. New area: dynamic line rating using ensemble forecasts, especially for extreme events and within AEOLUS project exploring new technology and MSEPS training with fiberoptic measurement data.