Information & Publications
The MSEPS system's 75 ensemble members are generated with a so-called multi-scheme approach, which uses one numerical weather prediction (NWP) model kernel and generates perturbations by varying the formulation of physical processes inside the NWP model. In the MSEPS it is the initial conditions, advection and fast physical processes that form the differences in the ensemble members, because these processes are most relevant for renewables application such as wind power, solar power, hydropower and hydrological and oceanographic modelling.
We in WEPROG argue that the common claim "ensemble forecasts are more accurate than deterministic forecasts" is misleading—no single forecast can ever be perfectly right, especially when used in the power system, where second-by-second balancing means every error has a cost. What matters is the cost of errors and intelligent use of forecasts.
State of the Art and the MSEPS SystemDesigned as dedicated real-time ensemble prediction system for the industry
The key features of the MSEPS can be summarised to:
Ensemble value: Ensemble forecasts add a crucial dimension by quantifying weather uncertainty, enabling operators to schedule dispatch securely and cost-efficiently through pre-allocated reserves.
Market benefits: Uncertainty knowledge supports more intelligent, cost-effective planning and trading, and increases sustainable competition.
Robustification: The ensemble approach filters out uncertain information via a conservative ensemble mean; the deviation from truth has low predictability, so single forecasts can't be trusted.
Security margins: Rather than constant margins based on past errors and average prices, ensemble forecasts enable objective, time-dependent quantification of security requirements—valuable since these costs are significant and weather-dependent.
MSEPS capabilities: Provides probabilities for all relevant weather quantities (precipitation, temperature, wind, wind power) and predicts uncertainty changes down to the shortest time scales.
Research & Development ResultsScientific Journals and Books
The following publication list is a result of scientific work with the MSEPS and our collaboration
with academic instoitutions to provide Data and Information from and about the
Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System (MSEPS).
We hope this is an inspiration, especially for industrial partners, how research and technology needs to go
hand in hand to stay at the forefront of technological development not only for the next few years, but over decades....
2026
Irene Schicker, Corinna Möhrlen, Anna-Maria Tilg, Lukas Strauss, Florian Mader, Advancing forecasting in mountainous terrain for weather-driven energy systems: Recommendations from a comprehensive stakeholder analysis, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 64, 2026, 102194, ISSN 2211-467X, DOI; 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102194.
Ebba Dellwik, Corinna Mo¨hrlen, and Johan Arnqvist. Lidar and Sodar Measurement During Rough Weather: Can a Ground-Based Remote Sensing Profiler Be Used to Quantify the Rain Intensity? In: Journal of Physics: Conference Series (JPCS). Proc. of The Science of Making Torque from Wind (TORQUE 2026). Bruges, Belgium, June 2026. URL: (cited on pages 31, 40).
2025
Bjerregård, M. B., Browell, J., Zack, J., Møller, J. K., Madsen, H., Giebel, G., & Möhrlen, C. (2025). evalprob4cast: An R-package for evaluation of ensembles as probabilistic forecasts or event forecasts. arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.03544.
J. Arnqvist, J. U. Jørgensen, and C. Möhrlen. Aspects on Remote Sensing Assisted Wind Farm Minute-Scale Forecasting. In: IET Conference Proceedings of the 24th Wind & Solar Integration Workshop. Volume 2025. 2025. URL: DOI: 10.1049/icp.2025.4353 (cited on page 40).
2023
C. Möhrlen, J. Zack, M. B. Bjerregård and G. Giebel, “IEA wind recommended practice for the implementation of renewable forecasting solutions: hands-on examples for the use of the guideline,” Proc. 22nd Wind and Solar Integration Workshop (WIW 2023), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2023, pp. 83-94, doi: 10.1049/icp.2023.2722.
Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack, Gregor Giebel: IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions. 370 pp. Elsevier Academic Press, November 11, 2022. ISBN: 9780443186813. DOI: 10.1016/C2021-0-03549-5 -- Link to OpenAccess Book (Download)
Möhrlen, C., Bessa, R. J., & Fleischhut, N. (2022). A decision-making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty. Meteorological Applications, 29( 3), e2077. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2077 +++OPENAccess Article+++
Jie Yan, Corinna Möhrlen, Tuhfe Göçmen, Mark Kelly, Arne Wessel, and Gregor Giebel, Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 165:112519,23, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112519, 2022. +++ OpenAccess Article+++
Möhrlen, C., Ó Foghlú, D., Power, S., Nolan, G., Conway, K., Lambert, E., Ging, J.: EirGrid’s met mast and alternatives study. IET Renew. Power Gener., p 1--14 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1049/rpg2.12502
2021
Corinna Möhrlen, Gregor Giebel, Ricardo J. Bessa, Nadine Fleischhut,How do Humans decide under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty -- an IEA Wind Task 36 Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experiments initiative, Journal of Physics: Conference Series (2022)WindEurope Electric City 2021 23/11/2021 – 25/11/2021 Copenhagen, Denmark, DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/2151/1/012014, Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd, OpenAccess: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/2151/1/012014
2019
IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, Volume: 17, Issue: 6, Nov.-Dec. 2019
S.-E. Haupt, M. Garcia Casado, M. Davidson, J. Dobschinski, P. Du, M. Lange, T. Miller, C. Möhrlen, A. Motley, R. Pestana, J.Zack, The use of Probbilistic Forecasts - applying them in theory and practice, in IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 46-57, Nov.-Dec. 2019. DOI: 10.1109/MPE.2019.2932639 Online: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8878053
Energies 2019, 12, 712 - Special Issue Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting
Würth, I.; Valldecabres, L.; Simon, E.; Möhrlen, C.; Uzunoglu, B.; Gilbert, C.; Giebel, G.; Schlipf, D.; Kaifel, A. Minute-Scale Forecasting of Wind Power—Results from the Collaborative Workshop of IEA Wind Task 32 and 36. Energies 2019, 12, 712.
Open Access, Online: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/4/712 PDF Version: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/4/712/pdf
2017
Energies 2017, 10, 1402
Bessa, R.J.; Möhrlen, C.; Fundel, V.; Siefert, M.; Browell, J.; Haglund El Gaidi, S.; Hodge, B.-M.; Cali, U.; Kariniotakis, G. Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry. Energies 2017, 10, 1402, doi:10.3390/en10091402
Open Access Online: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/9/1402/ PDF Version: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/9/1402/pdf
IEEE Power and Energy Magazine - Issue: 6, Nov.-Dec. 2017
J. Dobschinski, R. Bessa, P. Du, K. Geisler, S.-E. Haupt, M. Lange, C. Möhrlen, D. Nakafuji, M. d.l.T. Rodriguez, Uncertainty Forecasting in a Nutshell: Prediction Models Designed to Prevent Significant Errors, in IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 40-49, Nov.-Dec. 2017. doi: 10.1109/ MPE.2017.2729100 URL
Springer Book: Power Electronics and Power Systems (Open access)
Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy into Bulk Power Systems - From Planning to Operation, Editors: Du, Pengwei, Baldick, Ross, Tuohy, Aidan (Eds.)
Chapter 3: The Role of Ensemble Forecasting in Integrating Renewables into Power Systems: From Theory to Real-Time Applications, 79-134. Corinna Möhrlen and Jess U. Jørgensen
2016
Energy Proceedia 99, (2016)
Zhuang Cai, Christian Bussar, Philipp Stöcker, Luiz Moraes, Dirk Magnor, Dirk Uwe Sauer, Optimal Dispatch Scheduling of a Wind-battery-System in German Power Market,
Energy Procedia, Volume 99, Pp 137-146, ISSN 1876-6102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.105. Open access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610216310669
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016)
G Giebel, J Cline, H Frank, W Shaw, P Pinson, B-M Hodge, G Kariniotakis, J Madsen, and C Möhrlen, Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016) 032042, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/753/3/032042.
2012 - 2015
IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2015
Tuohy, A.; Zack, J.; Haupt, S.; Sharp, J.; Ahlstrom, M.; Dise, S.; Grimit, E.; Mohrlen, C.; Lange, M.; Casado, M.; Black, J.; Marquis, M.; Collier, C., "Solar Forecasting: Methods, Challenges, and Performance," in Power and Energy Magazine, IEEE , vol.13, no.6, pp.50-59, Nov.-Dec. 2015, doi: 10.1109/MPE.2015.2461351
Abstract: The deployment of solar-based electricity generation, especially in the form of photovoltaics (PVs), has increased markedly in recent years due to a wide range of factors including concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, supportive government policies, and lower equipment costs. Still, a number of challenges remain for reliable, efficient integration of solar energy. Chief among them will be developing new tools and practices that manage the variability and uncertainty of solar power.
URL: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=7299804&isnumber=7299767
IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2013
Mark Ahlstrom and Drake Bartlett, Craig Collier, Jacques Duchesne, David Edelson, Ulrich Focken, Alejandro Gesino, Marc Keyser, David Maggio, Michael Milligan, Corinna Möhrlen, Jonathan O’Sullivan, Justin Sharp, Pascal Storck, Miguel de la Torre, John Zack: Knowledge is Power in IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.11 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2013.
Abstract: Imagine a world where wind energy is dispatchable, following a set point from the system operator just like other power plants. Is this a future dream that will only happen with massive storage or other breakthroughs? No, not at all – it is happening now in major parts of North American and Europe. The implementation is straightforward with the right wind forecasts for the dispatch process, and in turn this creates more market participation and higher value for forecasts in other timeframes.
URL: IEEE Power & Energy
Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft 2012 Untersuchung verschiedener Handelsstrategien für Wind-und Solarenergie unter Berücksich tigung der EEG 2012 Novellierung (Link allows download of Author's Version) Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft, Vol.36, No.1 pp 9-25, 2012
Link to Journal Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft
ENGLISH TRANSLATION of full manuscript by Authors:
Investigation of various trading strategies for wind and solar power developed for the new EEG 2012 rules
2007- 2010
Renewable Energy, 2010
D. Heide, L. von Bremen, M. Greiner, C. Hoffmann, M. Speckmann, S.Bofinger, Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe, In Renewable Energy, Volume 35, Issue 11, 2010, Pages 2483-2489, ISSN 0960-1481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2010.03.012.
IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2009
Where the Wind Blows - Power Management and Forecasting in Areas with High Wind-Energy Penetration Levels IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.7 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2009. Link to Journal IEEE Power & Energy
Application of cost functions for large-scale integration of wind power using a multi-scheme ensemble prediction technique, in "Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems", Ed. Edgardo D. Castronuovo, NOVA Publisher NY, ISBN: 978-1-60692-613-0, (2008).
Link to Book Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems
IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2007
Predicting the Wind, Models and Methods of Wind Forecasting for Utility Operations Planning, IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.5 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2007.
Link to Journal IEEE Power & Energy
Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft 2007
On the Potential of coupling Renewables into Energy Pools, Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft, No. 1/2007, Vol.31, pp 35-46, 2007
Link to Journal Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft
Public Reports & Books MSEPS applications supported by its modular plug&play structure
.
Information about the MSEPS
iEnKF: Short-term wind power forecasting with an inverted Ensemble Kalman Filter: paper or presentation
PMT-Filter: The Probabilistic Multi-Trend Filter: paper
Uncertainty in Wind Energy For ecasting: Basic research on the multi-scheme ensemble approach
Thesis (PhD) Deptartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University College Cork, Ireland,
DP2004 MÖHR, May 2004. [Full text] (PDF 2.8MB)
Eirgrid's Met Mast and Alternatives Study Online Access
This study report describes the methods used to verify the quality of meteorological data signals at wind farms in Ireland
and analyses various types of alternative meteorological measurements that were found to be acceptable under varying conditions.
There are several recommendations presented based on the findings of the study and discussed how these recommendations are being
implemented by EirGrid.
Public Reports & Books
WEPROG is taking on this responsibility together with their partners and collaborators to always be at the forefront of available technology and to be able to deliver continuous improvements over time. The fact that real-time operations are practised with customers on almost all continents is challenging, but also gives a unique opportunity to identify issues and solve problems at places far away from certain target areas, which however may be affected by such problems. One example are the Rocky Mountains in Alberta that have influence on the weather development in Northern Europe. By solving wind flow issues over the Albertan part of the Rockies, not only the Canadian, but also the Danish and German customers will see improvements in forecast quality.
WEPROG also actively participates and coordinates research projects. In fact, the first project and starting point of WEPROG was the MELTRA project (2003-2006), which was funded by the Transmission System Operator for the western part of Denmark ELTRA (now Energinet.dk).
The following are a list of current and past research projects and associated reports and publications. More Details on Research & Development projects can be found under the R&D page here
Books
Books and Chapters we have been contributing to over the years.
Elsevier Book: IEA Wind RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FORECASTING SOLUTIONS
Publication by Elsevier of the Recommended Practice accepted by the international expert members of IEA Wind
IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions.
Eds. Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack, Gregor Giebel, 370 pp. Elsevier Academic Press, November 11, 2022. ISBN: 9780443186813. DOI: 10.1016/C2021-0-03549-5--
Up-to-date information and material from the book’s companion page can be found here
Elsevier OpenAccess electronic book for download here --
Elsevier printed book: order here
Link to OpenAccess complete book Download
Springer Book Chapter: Power Electronics and Power Systems
Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy into Bulk Power Systems - From Planning to Operation, Editors: Du, Pengwei, Baldick, Ross, Tuohy, Aidan (Eds.)
Chapter 3: The Role of Ensemble Forecasting in Integrating Renewables into Power Systems: From Theory to Real-Time Applications, 79-134. Corinna Möhrlen and Jess U. Jørgensen
NOVA Book Chapter: Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems
Application of cost functions for large-scale integration of wind power using a multi-scheme ensemble prediction technique, in "Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems", Ed. Edgardo D. Castronuovo, NOVA Publisher NY, ISBN: 978-1-60692-613-0, (2008).Link to Book Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems
Public & Research Reports
The following shows some of the research projects we have articipated in with a short description and some reporting.
EARS4WINDENERGY - Ensemble-based Approach utilizing a Refined SODAR for Wind Energy Applications (2023-2026)
A project funded by the EU Eurostar III call 3 - July 2023 - Project ID 2442
WEPROG has teamed up with AQSystem, Uppsala University and DTU and received project funding under the EU Financed Eurostars 3 program.
In the EARS4WindEnergy project, the partners will collaborate on improving and quantifying the robustness of the AQSystem ground‐based
remote‐sensing SODAR, and its measurement of turbulence intensity. The MSEPS ensemble weather system will integrate data from the AQ510 SODAR
for real-time data assimilation and post-processing.
Press Release March 2023
EARS4Windenergy Handout
EARS4Windenergy DemonstrationReport
WIKKI - Wind energy short-term forecast based on coupled meso- and microscale models controlled by artificial intelligence (2022-2024)
The aim of the project is to create a process chain from ensemble weather forecasting in connection
with CFD modeling and ML-based power forecasting as well as learning and feedback processes to combine
micro-, meso- and macroscales into an integrated improved short-term forecast for wind energy applications.
Coordination: Esslingen University of Applied Sciences, Building and Energy Technology (HE-NG)
Partners: Esslingen University, IT and information technology (HE-IN), research association WindForS, WEPROG
Funded by the German Federal Foundation for the Environment (DBU) under Project ID: 37549/01 24/0.
FINAL PROJECT REPORT (German) [Download]
RAVE - Grid Integration of offshore wind parks
Project summary and contributions available here
and at the official RAVE homepage under Projects -> "Grid Integration".
Final report from WEPROG, Juni 2012 (only available in German). [Download Bericht] (pdf, 1.6MB).
2012 RAVE - Research at Alpha Ventus - Conference
Advanced on shortest-term predictability with Ensemble Kalman filtering. [Presentation] (PDF 2.3 Mbyte)
DEWEPS Project:
Public Report 1 (2010/01): Event Analysis of an extreme forecasting error case and discussion on optimisation of wind power integration. [Download Report] (pdf, 705kB).
Public Report 2 (2010/08): Best practises on the use of Ensemble Forecasts for wind power forecasting. [Download Report] (pdf, 1.6MB).
Final Project Report (2012): DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of new Wind forecastin g tools with an Ensemble Prediction System.
[Full Text] (pd f, 3.4Mb). [E xecutive Summary] (pdf, 668kB).
HREnsemble Project:
Public Interim Report 1 (2007): Verification of WEPROG's MSEPS with data from the FINO1 platform. [Download Report] (783kB).
Public Interim Report 2 (2008): Progress report on a variability forecast approach, ocean modelling, and sensitivity analysis of oceanographic variables for offshore forecasting. [Download Report] (1.06 MB).
Final Project Report (2010): A High Resolution Ensemble for Horns Rev. [Full Text] (2.1 MB) [Executive Summary] (73 KB)
Conference PublicationsScientific Presentations and Standardisation Work
The Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System (MSEPS) has been applied in many
different dicipline throughout the years and proven it's value for scentific research as much as for
real-time operations on nearly all continents.
The followind list is a collection of presentations providing insights and inspiration for the use
and the application possibilities our system is capable of.
2026
Wind & Solar integration Workshop, Porto, September 2026
Gregor Giebel, Caroline Draxl, Corinna Möhrlen, Helmut Frank, George Kariniotakis, Jethro Browell, Ricardo Jorge Bessa, David Lenaghan, Jie Yan, Irene Schicker, Niina Helistö, Hannele Holttinen, AI FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM – REVIEW OF JOINT WORKSHOPS AND WORK PROGRAMM OF IEA WIND TASK 51 AND 63, [Poster] [Paper]
Wind & Solar integration Workshop, Porto, September 2026
Gregor Giebel, Caroline Draxl, Corinna Möhrlen, Helmut Frank, George Kariniotakis, Jethro Browell, Ricardo Jorge Bessa, David Lenaghan, Jie Yan, Irene Schicker, Niina Helistö, Hannele Holttinen, AI FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM – REVIEW OF JOINT WORKSHOPS AND WORK PROGRAMM OF IEA WIND TASK 51 AND 63, [Poster]
The Science of Making Torque from Wind (TORQUE 2026)
Ebba Dellwik, Corinna Möhrlen, and Johan Arnqvist. Lidar and Sodar Measurement During Rough Weather: Can a Ground-Based Remote Sensing Profiler Be Used to Quantify the Rain Intensity?, The Science of Making Torque from Wind (TORQUE 2026). Bruges, Belgium, June 2026. URL: (cited on pages 31, 40).
2025
Wind & Solar integration Workshop, Berlin, 7th – 10th October 2025
SESSION 3D – IEA WIND TASK 51 & PVPS TASK 16
Wind Task 51 und PVPS Task 16 Forecasting: Overview of Recent Activities and Next Phase Plans of Task 51 - Forecasting for the Weather-Driven Energy System
J. Zack† (MESO), C. Möhrlen (WEPROG), G. Giebel (DTU Wind, DK), C. Draxl (EPRI,USA), H. Frank (DWD, DE). [Presentation]
Panel Discussion on Challenges of Renewable Energy Forecasting with a Penetration Level of 80% or More Renewables in the Grid
Moderator: C. Möhrlen (WEPROG), Panelists: Jan Remund (Meteotest AG, CH), Sylvain Cros (Ecole Polytechnique, FR), Andrea Meyer (Bern University of Applied Sciences, CH), Hannele Holttinen
(Recognis, FI), Nickie Menemenlis (Hydro Québec, CA), Jonathan Dyson (Greenview Strategic Consulting, AUS), Debra Lews (ESIG, USA) [Presentation] [Summary]
SESSION 4D – RECOMMENDED PRACTICES AND STANDARDS
IEC Standard for Renewable Energy Forecasting: Introduction to the Current Working Draft
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), J. Zack† (MESO Inc., United States) [Presentation]
SESSION 10D – FORECASTING
Aspects on Remote Sensing assisted Wind Farm Minute-Scale Forecasting, J. Arnqvist (Uppsala University | RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Sweden), J. U. Jørgensen, C. Möhrlen (WEPROG,DE&DK) [Paper] [Presentation]
IEA Wind Task 51 Workshop on Forecasting Extremes in the Power System, 30. Sept. - 2. October 2025
Organising Team: C. Möhrlen, C. Draxl (EPRI,USA), H. Frank (DWD, DE), Vanessa Fundel (DWD), Gregor Giebel (DTU Wind, DK)
Host: German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
Presentations
YouTube Video Recording Day 1]
YouTube Video Recording Day 2
Wind Energy Science Conference, 24-27 June 2025, Nantes, France
Session 7.4 Electrical conversion, energy systems and grid integration
Extreme Power System Events, Results from a Recent Workshop of IEA Wind Task 51 Forecasting
G. Giebel (DTU Wind, DK), C. Möhrlen (WEPROG), , C. Draxl (EPRI,USA), H. Frank (DWD, DE) [Abstract] [Presentation]
Session 6.2 Reliability, Monitoring and sensing, O&M
EARS on the challenges of extremes in the power system, Corinna Möhrlen , Johan Arnqvist , Jess U. Jørgensen , André Gräsman , Sten-Ove Rodén , Ebba Dellwik , and Pelle Hurtig, [Abstract] [Presentation]
2024
CST4ALL Online R&I Workshop on Meteorology for Renewable Energy Technology, Dec. 11, 2024
Invited talk in Session 2: Research needs for specific RE technology and topic and link to other RE technologies
MÖHRLEN, On Research Gaps in Wind Resource Assessment and forecasting, [Presentation]
IEA Wind Task 51 Austria Workshop, 11th November 2024
Corinna Möhrlen, IEA Wind Task 51 Overview presentation [Presentation]
Wind & Solar integration Workshop, Helsinki, 8th – 11th October 2024
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, DE/DK), Overview of IEA Wind Task 51 activities
SESSION 4D – IEA WIND AND PVPS TASK 51 AND 16, [Presentation]
C. Möhrlen, Introduction to the IEC and IEA liaison for the Collaborative Development of a Standard for Renewables Forecasting and Forecast Evaluation
C. Möhrlen, J. U. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark), J. Arnqvist (University of Uppsala, Sweden), Quality-Assessment of High-Resolution Weather Forecasts and Gap-Filling of Real-Time Measurements for Improved Predictability in Extreme Events, SESSION 5D: FORECASTING ASPECTS [Presentation]
IEA Wind and PVPS Minute-scale Forecasting Workshop, 10.- 11.April, 2024
Corinn Möhrlen and Jess Jørgensen,On the benefits and challenges of high-resolution ensemble forecasts for minute-scale ramping applications., [Presentation]
Lecture at the University of Stuttgart, Institute for Aerospace, Department of Windenergie, WEN II Vorlesung, 17. January 2024
Corinn Möhrlen, Introduction to weather and power forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System. , [Presentation]
IEA Wind and PVPS Minute-scale Forecasting Workshop, 10.- 11.April, 2024
Corinn Möhrlen and Jess Jørgensen, On the benefits and challenges of high-resolution ensemble forecasts for minute-scale ramping applications, [Presentation]
Lecture at the University of Stuttgart, Institute for Aircraft Design, Department of Wind energy, Kurs WEN II , 17. January 2024
Corinn Möhrlen, Introduction to weather and power forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System. [Presentation]
2023
22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop,Kng. Lyngby, Denmark, 26. – 28. September 2023
Corinn Möhrlen, John Zack, Gregor Giebel, IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Forecasting Solutions: hands-on examples for the use of the guideline. [Paper] and [Presentation]
Corinna Möhrlen, Johan Arnqvist, Jess Jørgensen, Pelle Hurtig, Sten-Ove Rodén, André Gräsman, Ebba Dellwik, EARS4WindEnergy – next level wind integration by listening to the wind. [Presentation]
7th International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM): Towards climate-resilient energy systems, Padova, Italy, 27-29 Jun 2023, Giebel, G, Frank, H, Draxl, C, Zack, J, Browell, J, Möhrlen, C, Kariniotakis, G, Bessa, R & Lenaghan, D: IEA Wind Task 51 “Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System>”.
Wind Euopre, Copenhagen, 23.-25. April 2023
Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack and Gregor Giebel, 1st Renewable Energy Forecasting Industry Guideline: IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions. [Poster]
Corinna Möhrlen and Nadine Fleischhut, Extreme Event Decision-Making in a high-wind Energy System. [Poster]
General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23– 28 April 2023
Gregor Giebel, Caroline Draxl, Helmut Frank, John Zack, Jethro Browell, Corinna Möhrlen, George Kariniotakis, Ricardo Bessa, David Lenaghan, IEA Wind Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy, . [Poster]
International RAVE Workshop 2023
Corinna Möhrlen, “IEA Wind Recommended Practice Measurement Control and ensemble based Analysis of Observation used in real-time Wind Energy Forecast Applications”,. [Presentation]
2022
21st International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Den Haag, 12.-14. October 2022
SESSION 10A: IEA WIND TASK 51 – 1 - 1:20 – 13:45 | 12 October 2022
IEA Wind Task 51 Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System – An Overview
J Zack, C. Möhrlen, G. Giebel, H. Frank, C. Draxl, J. Browell, G. Kariniotakis, R. J. Bessa, D. Leneghan [Paper] (pdf 320kb) [Presentation] (pdf 4.6 MB)
Keynote: How to boost decision making based on probabilistic wind / power forecasts? N. Fleischhut [Presentation] (pdf 12MB)
Insight on Human Decision-Making from Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experience: interactive Game Playing!, C. Möhrlen, N. Fleischhut [Presentation] (pdf 3.52MB)
European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Bonn, Sept. 2022
ES2.3 Dealing with UncertaintiesConveners: Nadine Fleischhut, Vanessa Fundel, Jelmer Jeuring, Bruno Joly, Mark A. Liniger, Ken Mylne, Anders Doksæter Sivle, Oral Presentations | Mon, 05 Sep, 14:00–15:30 (CEST) | Poster Presentations 16:00–17:30 (CEST)
EMS2022-158:Behavioural decision-making Experiments in weather-driven Energy Systems, Corinna Möhrlen, Nadine Fleischhut, Gregor Giebel, [Presentation] (2.8Mb)
American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Online, 26th Jan. 2022
13th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
11.1 - Best Practices for the Selection of Optimal Forecast Solutions for Renewable Electricity Generation Applications (
Core Science Keynote
John W. Zack and Corinna Möhrlen, IEA Wind Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments Initiative [Presentation] (3.6MB)
2021
Wind Europe Electric City 2021 Copenhagen, 23.-25.11.2021
Corinna Möhrlen, Ricardo Bessa, Gregor Giebel, Nadine Fleischhut, Session “Forecasting” on 25 Nov. 2021 11:45 – 12.30 Auditorium 15
[Poster] (Award Winner!) (2.5Mb) | [Presentation] (5.4MB)
OpenAccess Article
EMS 2021 - European Meteorological Society annual Meeting
ES2.2 Dealing with Uncertainties
Conveners: Nadine Fleischhut, Vanessa Fundel, Jelmer Jeuring, Bruno Joly, Mark A. Liniger, Ken Mylne, Anders Doksæter Sivle
Lightning talks | Mon, 06 Sep, 14:00–15:30 (CEST), Tue, 07 Sep, 14:00–15:30 (CEST)
EMS2021-495: Communicating warnings for extreme events: use-case of a high-speed shutdown warning system for a system operator with high wind power penetration
Corinna Möhrlen [Presentation](1.3Mb)
EMS2021-500 IEA Wind Task 36 “Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments” Initiative, Corinna Möhrlen, Ricardo Bessa, and Gregor Giebel, [Presentation](1.8Mb)
ESIG 2021 Meteorology & Market Design for Grid Services Workshop -- ONLINE --
Session 3: Probabilistic Forecasting: State-of-Art and Use in Operations, Tuesday, June 8 -- 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. (US-EDT)
Ensemble-Based Dynamic Ramping Reserve Forecasts: An Irish Case Study, Corinna Möhrlen, Managing Director, WEPROG [Presentation](1.5Mb)
[Video of presentation]
Wind Energy Science Conference • 25 – 28 May 2021 • Hannover, Germany
Mini Symposium"Wind Power Forecasting" under Theme 1 Wind Resources, Wind farms and Wakes
ONLINE, 25.05.2021 13.40 - 15.20 CEST & 15.30 - 17.10 CEST
Insight into Human Decision-making from Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experiments: an IEA Wind Task 36 initiative,
Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG) and Nadine Fleischhut (MPI), Ricardo J. Bessa (INESCTEC), [Presentation] (pdf 1.22MB)
RPG 2020 - 9th Conference on Renewable Power Generation
EirGrid's Met Mast and Alternative Study, Corinna Möhrlen, Diarmuid Ó Foghlú, Séamus Power, Gill Nolan, Kenneth Conway, Eric Lambert, John Ging
Online on March 1.-2, 2021
[Conference Paper] (pdf, 270kB)
[Peer-reviewed paper]: Acceptedon May 2, 2022 for publication in the Wiley IET Renewable Power Generation Gold Open Access Journal Special Session.
19th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Online, 11.-12.November 2020
SESSION 6A: IEA WIND TASK 36 – RAISING THE BAR ON INFORMATION TRANSPARENCY AND RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR WIND POWER FORECASTING -- 11:15 – 13:00 | 12 November 2020
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting – An Overview, G. Giebel (DTU Wind Energy, Denmark), W. Shaw (PNNL, United States), H. Frank (Deutscher Wetterdienst DWD,Germany), C. Draxl (NREL, United States), J. Zack (UL Services Group, United States), P. Pinson (DTU Elektro, Denmark),C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), G. Kariniotakis (Mines ParisTech, France), R. J. Bessa (INESC TEC, Portugal), [Paper] (pdf 320kb) [Presentation]
IEA Wind Task 36: Practical Application Examples from the Recommended Practices for Forecast Solution Selection Wind Power Forecasting Data Definitions and Exchange Standards – An Approach for a Recommended Practice, J. Zack (UL Services Group, United States), C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark) (Submission?ID WIW20?108)[Paper] (pdf 354kB)
[Presentation] (pdf 3.52MB)
Insight on Human Decision-Making from Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experience: an IEA Wind Task 36 initiative, C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), N. Fleischhut (Max-Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany), R. J. Bessa (INESC TEC, Portugal) (Submission?ID WIW20?9[Paper] (pdf 415kB) [Presentation] (pdf 3.52MB)
2020
Meteorology & Market Design for Grid Services Workshop (ONLINE)" href="https://www.esig.energy/event/2020-meteorology-market-design-for-grid-services-workshop-online/" rel="bookmark">2020 Meteorology & Market Design for Grid Services Workshop (ONLINE) June 1, 2020 - June 30, 2020
IEA Wind Task 36 Special Session: Thursday, June 25 – 11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. (eastern US) VIEW SESSION
Forecasting Session 3: IEA Wind Task 36 Joint Session: Updates in Best Practices/Tools, Chair: John Zack, UL Renewables
Co-Chair: Corinna Möhrlen, Managing Director, WEPROG, Germany
Overview, Demonstration and Results of Probabilistic Forecasting Game, Corinna Möhrlen, Managing Director, WEPROG, Germany, [Presentation] (pdf 1.3 MB)
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting Workshop at Strathclyde University of Glasgow, January 21, 2020
Presentations:
Probabilistic Forecast Game Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG) and Nadine Fleischhut (MPI), [Presentation] (pdf 921kB)
OpenSpace Discussion and Forecasting Game Analysis Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG)
, [Presentation] (pdf 945kB)
Available Online on IEA Wind Task 36's Youtube channel: Glasgow Workshop
2019
18th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plant, Dublin, Ireland, October 16.-18, 2019
Probabilistic forecasting tools for high-wind penetration areas: an Irish case study, >C. Möhrlen, U. Vestergaard (WEPROG, Denmark), J. Ryan, K. Conway, S. Griffin (EIRGRID, Ireland), [Paper] (pdf 521kB), [Presentation] (pdf 3.52MB)
IEA Wind Task 36 OpenSpace Workshop
Overview Presentation 190 including the workshop results. Presentation (1.182MB)
IEA Wind Task 36 Session Topic 2: Meteorological Measurements and instrumentation standardization for integration into grid codes: what can we learn from the WMO ? Paper (150kB)
IEA Wind Task 36 Session Topic 4: Recommended Practices on Forecast Solution Selection: which areas are not covered sufficiently ? Paper (527kB)
International Conference of Energy Meteorology (ICEM) 2019, DTU Campus, Lyngby, 26 June 2019
IEA Wind Task 36 “Wind Energy Forecasting” Open Space Workshop
Result Presentation from the workshop: Presentation (4.47MB)
2018
17th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plant, Stockholm, Sweden, October 17.-19, 2018Understanding Uncertainty: the difficult move from a deterministic to a probabilistic world, C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), [Paper] (345kb pdf ), [Presentation] (pdf 3.95MB)
RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF WIND POWER FORECASTING SOLUTIONS, Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack, Jeff Lerner, Aidan Tuohy, Jethro Browell, Jakob W. Messner, Craig Collier, Gregor Giebel
Part 1: FORECAST SOLUTION SELECTION PROCESS [Paper] (254kb)
Part 2&3: DESIGNING AND EXECUTING FORECASTING BENCHMARKS AND TRIALS AND EVALUATION OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS [Paper] (270kb)
[Presentation] (pdf 2.76MB)
2018 ESIG Forecasting Workshop -- Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations" St. Paul, Minnesota, June 19-21, 2018
Use of Uncertainty Information in Grid Management: A High-Speed Shutdown Warning System in Ireland, Corinna Mohrlen, WEPROG [Presentation] (pdf 1.1MB)
2017
16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Berlin, Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017Uncertainty Forecasting Practices for the Next Generation Power System, C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark), J. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark), [Paper] (pdf 695kB) [Presentation] (pdf 4.75MB)
Can Benchmarks and Trials Help Develop new Operational Tools for Balancing Wind Power?, C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), C. Collier (DNV GL, USA), J. Zack (AWS Truepower, USA), J. Lerner (Vaisala, USA), [Paper] (pdf 375kB) [Presentation] (pdf 738kB)
2017 UVIG Forecasting Workshop "Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations", Atlanta, 20-22 June 2017
Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into Power System Operations
Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts [Presentation] (PDF 1.77 Mbyte)
Session 1: Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector
Meteorological Data Collection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study [Presentation] (PDF 435 Kbyte)
Session 4: Benchmarking, Trials and Evaluation
IEA Wind Task 36 Status and Progres [Presentation] (PDF 514 Kbyte) ---> see also IEA Wind Task 36 Wind energy forecasting webpage -> Publications
Session 7: Renewable Energy, Energy Trading, Market Evolution and the Role of Forecasting
Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading [Presentation] (PDF 1005 Kbyte)
2016
15th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Vienna, 15 - 17 November, 2016
Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State-of-theArt of Business Practices, [Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)
TORQUE 2016: The Science of Making Torque from Wind Conference, Munich, 5-7 October, 2016
Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues, [Paper] (712kb)
2015 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Denver, CO, 18.-19. Feb. 2015
Tutorial on Stochastic Forecasting Methods and Applications
[Presentation] (PDF 1.44 Mbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 27 kbyte)
Session 1: How to Run a Forecasting Trial and How to Get the Most Value from a Set of Multiple Forecast Vendors, [Presentation] (PDF 673 Kbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 28 kbyte)
Session 4: Global VG Forecasting and Market Operation (MO) Experience, [Presentation] (PDF 2.07 Mbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 30 kbyte)
2014
12th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Berlin, 11 - 12 November, 2014
Reserve forecasting for enhanced Renewable Energy management, [Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)
Meteomind Energy Weather Conference, Leipzig, 17./18. June 2014
Trading strategies in the Enery Market using Ensemble Forecasts, [Presentation in German] (PDF 3.4 Mbyte)
Workshop on Forecasting, Balancing and Scheduling of Renewable Energy in India -
Organisation: Indo-German Energy Forum Support Office and Ministry of New and Renewable Energy of India, New Dehli, 5.-6. May 2014
Wind Forecasting in India - Global experience transferred to Local Challenges, [Presentation] (PDF 5.8 Mbyte)
2014 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Tucson, AZ, 25.-26. Feb. 2014
Session 4: TSO Updates on Forecasting Applications in Market Design and System Operations II, [Presentation] (PDF 935 Kbyte)
Session 6: What is on the Horizon ?, [Presentation] (PDF 1.4 Mbyte)
2013
2013 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Salt Lake City, UT, 26.-27. Feb. 2013
Forecasting and European Market Developments, [Presentation] (PDF 1.2 Mbyte)
Variable Generation Energy Trading in Denmark, [Presentation] (PDF 0.9 Mbyte)
2012
2012 UVIG Workshop "Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Tucson, AZ, 08.-09. Feb. 2012
Large-scale forecasting with Ensemble Forecasts, [Presentation] (PDF 1.9 Mbyte )
Large-scale cross-country forecasting with the help of Ensemble Forecasts, [Presentation] (PDF 0.7 Mbyte)
Advanced on shortest-term predictability with Ensemble Kalman filtering, [Presentation] (PDF 2.3 Mbyte)
2009-2011
10th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Aarhus, 25 - 26 October, 2011
Increasing the Competition on Reserve for Balancing Wind Power with the help of Ensemble Forecasts, [Paper] (334kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 570kB)
2010 German Wind Energy Conference DEWEK, Bremen, May, 2010
Using Ensembles for Large-scale Forecasting of Wind Power in a European SuperGrid context, [Paper] (PDF 253kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 437 Kbyte)
8th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms
A new algorithm for Upscaling and Short-term forecasting of wind power using Ensemble forecasts, Bremen, Germany, October, 2009
[Paper] (PDF 493 Kbyte)
[Presentation] (PDF 437 Kbyte)
2009 UWIG Workshop "Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", February 2009 - Phoenix, Arizona
Short-term Forecasting and Optimisation using Ensembles
2006-2008
European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2008, Brussels, Belgium
HRensembleHR Project Progress in applying Short-range Ensemble Forecasts for Offshore Wind power, [Poster] (PDF 1.2 Mbytes ) [Full Text] (PDF 232 Kbytes)
Industry Workshop of AESO Wind Forecasting Study (June 2008) - WEPROG Forecasting Results & Recommendations
- All Presentations - Webcast
AESO Wind Power Forecastng Pilot Project (May 2008): - Final Project Report, - Presentation.
European Offshore Wind Energy Conference EOW 2007, Berlin: HRENSEMBLE: High Resolution Ensemble For Horns Rev Project Progress,.
AESO Wind Power Forecastng Pilot Project Pre-Conference Session, 24th April 2007, Calgary, Alberta, Canada: MSEPS Setup for the AESO Pilot study and preliminary results from the Training Phase
CanWEA/AWEA Joint Seminar - Wind Energy Integration and Forecasting April 25-26, 2007, Calgary, Alberta, Canada: Wind Energy Integration and Forecasting in Denmark and Germany
German Wind Energy Conference DEWEK 2006 Bremen: Foercasting Wind Power in high Wind Penetration Markets using Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction Methods:
Global Wind Energy Conference GWEC 2006 Adelaide, Australia: Forecasting total wind power generation on the Republic of Ireland Grid with a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System
Renewable Energy & Maritime Conference 2006, Dublin, Ireland: Aggregate Forecasting of Wind Power Generation on the Irish Grid using a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System:
European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2006 Athens, Greece: Application of a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecating in Ireland and comparison with validation results from Denmark and Germany: